LESLIE F. BERRY CPG
P.O. BOX 1825
LINDALE,TEXAS 75771
(903)882-8813 Bus & Fax
e-mail: audax@spyderinternet.com
February 22, 2002
MUSINGS II
Since the previous MUSINGS paper was written in July of 1996, several amazing exploration plays have been made. These discoveries have done more than make the headlines, they have revolutionized exploration thinking for a few companies, but just a few. The majority of exploration heads still inhale sand from time to time, seeing little more than they wish to see and still protect their stock options. More often than not decisions are controlled by the obligatory earnings per share or participating in the status quo for appearances’ sake.
Not in any particular chronological order, he following significant plays have been made.
- Roane County, W. VA.
Operator: Columbia Natural Resources (CNR)
Depth: 10000’
Reservoir: Trenton/Black River, tectonic dolomite in a narrow elongate, high-angle faulted graben. Pressured.
No. of wells: in the tens
Production rates: 5-50 MMCFGPD;
Reserves per well: N/A/; substantial
Field geometries: 1-2 locations wide, very narrow, elongate NE-SW several miles. No true analogue
- South-central New York State
Operator: CNR
Depth: 7500’
Reservoir: Trenton/Black River
No. of wells: in the tens
Production rates: 3-30 MMCFGPD
Reserves per well: N/A; 2-5 BCF/W ?
Field geometries: “Analogous to Roane County, WVA”
Success rate: 70%
- Potato Hills, SE Ok; fractured Ouachita facies in upper Stanley/Jackfork
Operator: GHK
Depth: above 6000’
Reservoir: steeply dipping fractured, sandy shales/non-porous sands. Pressured.
No. of wells: 21 to date.
Production rates: 10.9 MMCFGPD average; 24 MM largest
Reserves per well: 7 BCF/W average.
Payout/well: 10.5 months.
Field outline: 10 miles x 2 miles, elongate E-W. No analogue.
- Deep San Joaquin Valley, S. California
Operator: Anadarko (Berkely)
Depth: 18,000’
Reservoir: Temblor(Miocene)
No. of wells N/A
Production rates: Blowout rates in excess of 100 MMCFGPD
Reserves per well: N/A
Field geometries: Deep basin subthrust
- Panuke Reef Trend, Offshore Nova Scotia
Operator: Pan Canadian
Depth: 15000’ (horiz)
Reservoir: Jurassic
No. of wells: N/A
Production rates: 60 MMCFGPD (limited to equipment)
Field geometries: N/A/
- Ladyfern/Slave Point Reef Trend, Devonian, British Columbia
Operator: Murphy
Depth: 9100’
Reservoir: Devonian reef.
Production rates: 60-70 MMCFGPD
Reserves per well: N/A/, tight hole.
- Swan Hills, E. TN
Operator: Tenngasco
Depth: 5000’
Reservoir: Trenton/Black River, Knox
Production rates: 2-5 MMCFGPD
Reserves per field: 75-100 BCF per structure
Field geometries: subthrust anomalies.
At the risk of portraying an image of a wild man, several seemingly unrelated events of late have illuminated this concept of maverick ideas. In particular, the cattle business in East Texas over the last 50-60 years has devolved to a point where nearly all the knowledge across the board has been disseminated to the smallest common denominator. The Village Idiot can go down to the bank and borrow enough money to start his own little herd. Thence, he can find some broken down ranch to lease for little or nothing and go to work. As a consequence of anybody (read status quo) being able to do this, the profit margin has shrunk to equilibrium, in most years to negative returns. The Law of Perfect Competition raises its ugly head… Likewise, college football has largely arrived to the same point; through trades, swaps, etc., the sum knowledge of football has been disseminated across the board, leaving the advantage to the one with the most money and/or personality (read percentage wins..) Thus a slip on a bad day by the biggest, fastest, most talented team costs them the conference championship, since the knowledge is so near equilibrium. UNTIL someone like the U of Fla does something unconventional; then the status quo boys cannot keep up, vis-à-vis the 2002 championship game.
This status quo thing is in virtually every discipline, the oil business being no exception. Because of local success, hucksteristic sales and industry acceptance, 3-D seismic has been the latest example. It devolved into being used as a reconnaissance tool, a foolhardy tactic at best. The reason was to relieve management of cogent analyses, and definitely to cut their appearance of risk to as close to zero as possible. Radical is just that, radical, with the understanding that failure is a distinct possibility. I wonder if CNR in W.VA worried about public opinion ?
It would seem MUSINGS I was prophesying without a license…. These discoveries had no analogues, and were productive under bizarre geologic conditions to say the least. They have production rates to stagger the imagination. Shallow depths, too ! Anyone willing to get radical ?